Leetle Beet of Chaos

For reasons I'll not go into here, I've found myself alone in various eateries over the past few days. Without fail, a table near me has been surrounded by 3-5 middle-aged men, dressed business casual, sitting around sternly conversing regarding the economy, the 'housing bill,' real estate, mortgages, etc. Sometimes they're trying to explain to one another what is happening. I'm not sure where they get their definitions or understanding (Rush Limbaugh? CNBC? FOX News?) but it's interesting to see their disposition. Right now I'm listening to NPR and Terry Gross is treating us to some Wall Street history. Anyway, it seems like everyone agrees on one thing: things will never be the same. Is that a bad thing?

Mostly, I'm just throwing up this post because it's been over a month since I've posted anything. But I'm also thinking to myself that it's been a long, long time since American and Americans were really into building a Country as opposed to building an Economy. It's like so many are more into development (technological, industrial, agricultural, political, cultural) that has an ultimate goal of wealth as opposed to true self-sustaining systems on a global scale - or even on a national scale. Quite simply, Christ and the kingdom of God which he announces and indeed ushers into this world (along with the likes of John the Baptist, Paul and others) had and has the answers to these things. That may sound like an over-simplification but it's true. If the amount of time, energy and money spent inventing all of these different, creative, innovative investment vehicles, opportunities, companies, etc. were to have been spent cleaning, healing, helping, developing, serving, creating something that is real and tangible - that could have really been something. Instead - what we have to show for it are a bunch of homes. A bunch of empty homes. We're fooling ourselves when we think that we're making any sort of "progress" when the penultimate example is not some revolutionary invention or way to eradicate disease, some development which curbs the over-consumption of the earth's resources or bringing stability to mankind. Instead, we have some very creative people who know how to trade paper - in effect: gamble. When that paper looks thin - what we've got to back it up is (once again) NOT any phenomenal, revolutionary development.

Today is the 14th anniversary of my wedding day. That was an awesome day - a long awaited and forever favorably remembered day. I couldn't have told you anything about the economy in those days. I didn't care. I just needed enough money to make the rent payment on our 1 bedroom apartment. Those were the days! I think we both figured that it didn't matter what we had or where we lived or what we didn't have, as long as we were together. Now, 14 years later in these times of uncertainty - I still feel the same - it really doesn't matter, where or what or how - as long as we're together in a such a way that we can continue our God given purpose of raising our kids as citizens of the kingdom. If this financial mess teaches me anything it's that I don't want to miss the point - I don't want to congratulate myself for becoming a professional paper-trader. Instead, I want to learn to let God bring true progress, growth, transformation to and among our family - in such a way that it isn't just an empty (albeit good-looking) shell. I should like that our relationship and our family would become an effective force for true God.

I love you babe and even though I'm hopeful we won't have to ... I'd be glad to live in a shack out back as long as it was with you. You're all that I think about - and I still can't believe you're mine. I'm forever yours!

Party Shuffle Party

So, I thought I'd join bucky's party and post the results of a Party Shuffle refresh...

Apparently, Party Shuffle isn’t something I ever do. If it was, DELETE is something I would probably do more often.

The Happy Song – Delirious

-yes, it is happy

God of Wonders (live) – Caedmon’s Call

-good version of a good song

Love Is Blindness – U2

-a favorite, the live version rules

Bushfire – The B-52’s

-is that Phil Hartman singing?

I Think I’m a Clone Now – Weird Al

-Celebrity Death Match: Tiffany v. Debbie Gibson

Golden Years – Bowie

-Not my favorite Bowie song

Walk On (Single Version) – U2

-ATYCLB was released 8 years ago? Whoa

Wish I Could – Norah Jones

-my wife hates her

Harelem’s Nocturne – Alicia Keyes

-my wife loves her

Every Breath You Take – UB40

-sweet cover

Remember Me – Bo Bice

/me hangs head and walks out of the room

Bossy Boots Song – Spongebob Squarepants

-this makes up for Bo Bice, IMO

Waiting for the Night (sonic) – Depeche Mode

-their remixes are always cool

Love Song – Third Day

-one of the first songs I tried to play on guitar (still trying)

Every Breath You Take – Police

-I guess iTunes prefers the original

November has Come – Gorillaz

-these songs get stuck in my head

Love Can Make You Sin...

We've all done it (at least it makes me feel better to think that we have), and my singinest sister (Heather Lynn) is a master at it -and it is messing up the lyrics to a song. I'll leave the humorous anecdotes for others who are more witty than I. My discovery wasn't all that funny in any way - made less so by the fact that my discovery was made alone - mostly it made me feel like more of a dolt than usual.

A sort of eclectic song that's been in my play list since 1988, "Breakfast in Bed" which has probably been remixed and re-done 10 different times caught my attention yesterday. I'm most familiar with UB40's version but the song showed up again on the soundtrack of 50 First Dates a few years back too. Anyway, it's a sinful sort of song which has a hurt fellow running to the arms of his some-time lover for "breakfast in bed" where she tells him, "you don't have to say you love me." The original was written with different words - but UB40's rendition ends the little chorus with "...love can make you sing..." I actually had always thought that the lyric was "...love can make you sin..." So, I was wrong ... I guess it's "love can make you sing" not "sin" but no matter that my epiphany was based on a mistaken lyric.

I started thinking ... love can make you sin? Isn't that a strange thought? Is it valid? I guess it depends upon how you define love (not to mention how you define sin). In the moment that song was playing yesterday - it just seemed like a profound idea to share with my up-and-coming children (2008 is the year Sierra becomes a teenager). The idea that true love can never make you sin - not when it is properly understood and properly placed. The Greatest Commandment is to love the Lord our God with everything we are and have - that is true love. Acting out that sort of love cannot lead to sin. He loved us first and He is love - and there is no law which stands against love. If that's true then ... the practice of true love cannot possibly lead to sin.

If we find ourselves stepping into sin it cannot be on behalf of love. If we call it that, we are deceived - or simply using a word to describe something other. The same thing that inspires a definition as given in 1 Corinthians 13 cannot also inspire one to sin, no matter the circumstances.

I suppose this is all semantics. But I guess I fear that young folk (since I no longer qualify as one) find some comfort in justifying their promiscuous dalliances by claiming love. I want to at least remove that comforting justification. Call it what it is: attraction, desire, lust, self-seeking, pleasure, infatuation, but stop short of calling it love if it causes you to sin. And really, not even with young folk - but with whomever might follow the missives of the heart when the heart itself can be the most deceitful of things.

Anyhow, seemed as though I needed to slap some thoughts up in cyberspace - might as well be these. It's true, Love can make you sing! (too bad the characters portrayed in this lyric aren't practicing true love).

Welcome to IB, now go home

Here in Southern California we have beaches. Miles and miles of beaches. Some of them have sand, some of them have rocks. Some of them have sand and rocks. Some of them have sewage draining from nearby Tijuana River Valley into them. Some of them have sand-castle contests. This is what it looks like at the ones with the later:

It was fun to be with family - and a nice day with the sun masked by just a bit of afternoon haze. The kids perferred this action to the sand-castles:

Breaking a record I set about 8 years ago, I've been to the beach like twice this summer. It really is the best way to completely drain the kids - there can't be a better way to have fun. It occurs to me that we should go more often. If we do go more often - we're opting for the beaches without ongoing sand-castle competitions, a high ration of sand to rocks and a low ratio of sewage-borne bacteria (if we can help it) and a high ratio of space to people. Imperial Beach only meets one of the criterea (nice sand) ...

what is 35?

sounds old to me

maybe it's "too young to reason, to0 old to dream"

Per a book I read - I was thinking of starting/joining a Global Unterror Network (GUN) where:

...groups of seemingly disparate people defect and band together in the way of Jesus, they form what we might call unterror cells. They secretly plot detonations of hope. They quietly conspire to set off explosions of spontaneous kindness. They plan gentle coup d'etats to replace regimes of domination and oppression with movements of empowerment and service. In a complete overthrow of violent terrorism, they fly airplanes of generosity into towers of need and plant improvised encouragement devices by roadsides and in neighborhoods everywhere, seeking God's kingdom and God's equity.

San Diego Specifics

I wanted to post a couple of numbers specific to San Diego for the month of May. (See my last post for info on California and the foreclosure market lingo).

NOD: 3,362
NTS: 2,801

So, there are nearly 3,000 REO's that can potentially hit the San Diego market this month and in the months to come, each month. Not to mention other homes that are already for sale or homes that will come on the market that are not REO's. As a reference, the local MLS shows around 2,200 units sold in San Diego in April, 2008. Note that April, May and June will probably have some decent sales numbers due to seasonal trends. However, once we get into late summer and fall - it is going to be dismal. Not only because sales will slow but because REO's will just keep piling into the system.

If you want to buy a home in Southern California right now - choose one that you will be happy with for the next 10 years. Also, resolve that you won't panic and freak-out when the value of your home continues to fall for the next many months - it will come back, but not for awhile. For my part - I'm not interested in trying to catch falling knives (a popular euphemism in this industry) - I would not buy a stock that was nearly guaranteed to go down in value for the next 12 months - the only difference with a house is that it can be a home, and there is always value in that (even if it isn't always directly monetary).

Check out this screen shot:

What you're looking at (sorry it's so small) is an area that is maybe 3/4 of a mile square. This is in Oceanside -the 76 going right through the middle of some neighborhoods. Everyone one of those flags is a property that is either NOD, NTS or REO. In that relatively small area - there are 206 homes that are in some stage of foreclosure. Good luck trying to sell your house in this area ... you're competing with people that are just walking away from their homes or banks who need to get their property sold ASAP. Not all of these homes may be for sale ... on the other hand, these images don't reflect homes that are for sale but aren't in distress (some stage of foreclosure).

Below is another example ... this frame catches what is most of San Elijo Hills in San Marcos:

This depicts another 200+ homes in trouble in a relatively small area.

In both of these cases the majority of the homes are quite new (less than 5 years old) and they're not inexpensive, run-down, dumps ... a photo of what these homes typically look like:

Hope this helps. Stats from foreclosureradar.com and sandicor's MLS

California RE woes

Ok, so most everyone is aware of the major real-estate debacle going on throughout the nation. Things are pretty bad here in Southern California. We're probably only slightly better off than Floirda and Las Vegas. A few counties in Northern California are getting especially hammered and Riverside County (just North of us here in San Diego) is getting totally brutalized due to the compounding effect of crazy-high fuel prices (Temecula/Murrieta/Wildomar/Hemet - a large percentage of people who live there drive 30, 60 or even 100 miles one way to work).

Anyway, I just wanted to document a few components that bring some of this into perspective. A week doesn't go by that someone doesn't ask me if now is a good time to buy a home. Just last night I had a conversation with a fellow that wanted my advice as to whether he should buy some homes or purchase an apartment complex. Regarding buying a home (or homes) I told him that prices were going to continue to drop for many months and that he should not be in any hurry to rush out and buy a home - prices would probably continue to lower for the next 12 months (at least). The following are some statistics that inform my opinion.

First of all - you need to know a few things (and forgive me if you already know this). A Notice of Default (NOD) is what a bank/lender issues to a borrower who has not made payments on their loan (they are in default). Banks typically issue these once someone is 3 or maybe 4 months behind on their payments. This time-frame is actually in flux a bit right now becuase lenders are so inundated with people who are defaulting on their loans that it may be longer before an NOD is issued. Once the NOD is filed - the borrower has 90 days (in California) to cure the default. If the defualt is not cured (by making up for unpaid payments, or some other arrangement with the lender) within 90 days the lender can file a Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS). Once the NTS is filed, an auction (foreclosure sale) date is scheduled - this date is (by law) at least 21 days after the filing. If the borrower does not somehow cure the default, file bankruptcy or figure out a way to forestall the auction/foreclosure sale - the property is auctioned off to the highest bidder at the county court-house. Individuals may bid on this property. Typically, the bank simply wants to get back what they have lent on the property. If no one bids on the property, or no one bids as much as the bank is willing to accept - the property becomes owned by the bank (we call this type of property Real Estate Owned or REO). The bank can accept less than it is owed. If someone bids more than is owed ... the surplus goes to pay off other loans (if any) or the proceeds could actually go to the borrower/former owner. However, once the bank owns the property, that's it - the bank owns it and they are in complete control as to what they do with teh property. Ok, so now you know about an NOD, NTS and REO's.

Let's start with NOD's in California for the past few months:
March - 42,700
April - 44,100
May - 43,011

Now, even though there were less NOD's in May - there was an increase of NTS filings for the month of May at 34,564. Remember, the NTS filings in May are a result of NOD's filed in or before February, 2008. There were 37,362 NOD's filed in February, 2008. So, check out those numbers - look at the number of NOD's in February and the number of NTS' in May (3 months later) - a very high percentage of February's NOD's are being foreclosed upon. Now, this isn't entirely accurate because many of May's NTS filings could be from other NOD's prior to February and perhaps many of February's NOD's were cured. However, it is still indicative and there is a definite correlation - even if it is a bit indirect.

What that tells me is that we are going to continue to see over 1,000 homes per day in foreclosre in the State of California for the next several months (at least).

Also, it is worth noting that over 97% of all properties that go to auction/foreclosure sale end up being owned by the bank (in California). As this trend continues the banks become owners of huge inventories of properties. The banks don't want to own these properties and so they are trying to liquidate - which means lower prices. But what happens when over 30,000 properties per month come into the market-place? There is an over-supply and this equals lower prices.

Anyway, there's a bunch more to be said about the fact that a large number of these properties do not show up as listed for sale on your typical Realtor® listing service/website. Instead the banks may use other means to try and unload the properties or may simple keep the inventory under wraps. Because of this factor (and others) it is very difficult to tell just how much inventory there actually is out there - and how much it is worth.

The post is getting too long now ... I'll post more about San Diego, specifically later on...

*stats from foreclosureradar.com and sandicor's MLS.